< Más Articulos : If Not Regime Change, Then What? (Times of Israel - 26 Mar 2026)
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If Not Regime Change, Then What? (Times of Israel - 26 Mar 2026)
There is still much to unfold. But one thing already seems clear: a rare opportunity for the Iranian people to challenge the regime has slipped away, likely the result of a miscalculation that will be studied for years.
The spark was there. Tens of thousands of young Iranians took to the streets, only to be brutally crushed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. That moment carried the potential to evolve into something far greater.
What was missing was synchronization.
Had internal unrest aligned with external pressure, had Israel and the United States acted in parallel with those protests, had Kurdish forces provided coordinated support on the ground, and had a strong, widely recognized leader emerged to guide the revolt, the trajectory might have been very different.
Instead, timing faltered. Donald Trump signaled support to the Iranian people before a broader, coordinated strategy had taken shape, “help is on the way.” In moments like these, sequencing is not a detail, it is everything.
History often turns not only on bold decisions, but on when they are made. This may prove to be one of those moments.
That chapter now appears closed. What remains is a harder question: how to move forward when toppling the regime is no longer on the table.
Returning to the original rationale behind June 2023 and the confrontation that followed, the objective was clear: to prevent Iran from realizing its stated ambition of acquiring nuclear weapons. Not because such capability would merely shift the regional balance, but because it would fundamentally alter the rules of the game. While Tehran insists its program is peaceful, its posture, rhetoric, and strategic behavior suggest a far more complex reality.
At its core, the concern is not theoretical. A nuclear-armed Iran would not simply deter, it would embolden. In a region already defined by volatility, the danger lies not only in the existence of such weapons, but in the possibility that, sooner or later, they could be used, whether directly or through escalation dynamics that spiral beyond control.
The second major challenge, then and now, is preventing Iran from exporting its belligerence through a network of proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The events of October 7, 2023, made one point unmistakably clear: even without nuclear weapons, the regime has demonstrated both the reach and the willingness to orchestrate violence, terror, and mass killing.
It is no secret that, if able, Iran’s proxies would extend that terror far beyond the region. They have already done so across the Middle East, in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, and, to a lesser extent, through attacks and operations linked to targets in countries such as Argentina, the United States, and parts of Europe.
A third challenge is more sobering: the Iranian people themselves. As in many countries under oppressive rule, they may ultimately be forced to endure the regime longer than hoped, absent the conditions necessary for meaningful internal change.
Israel and the United States understand this clearly: the Iranian regime must be contained and confronted. Other countries recognize it as well, but many have hesitated to act decisively, often out of concern for internal stability or domestic political pressures. Some have even rejected the idea of involvement altogether. Yet this hesitation carries its own risk. What is avoided today out of caution may become unavoidable tomorrow.
And so, here we are. The ideal outcome, toppling the regime, appears, at least for now, out of reach. More limited, pragmatic objectives are taking shape. The United States seems focused primarily on preventing nuclear capability. Israel, facing more immediate and direct threats, seeks to go further: degrading Iran’s military infrastructure and dismantling its proxy network.
Both are, in effect, defining the conditions under which this conflict might end.
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/if-not-regime-change-then-what/
( Por: Yehudi Sabbagh , 26/03/2026 )
